Forecasting Our Future: Future climate favors more wildfires

One of the conditions that will be a part of our future is wildfires. Wildfires have been and will continue to be a natural part of our ecosystem, but a warming climate will create conditions favorable for more extreme wildfires and a longer-lasting fire season.The long-term climate signal data points to much of the western United States being at a greater risk for major wildfires. The trend is not good — there has already been a substantial increase in the acreage of land burned over the last 40 years across the western United States. According to a study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the western United States has seen a 90% increase in the amount of mean acreage burned by wildfires between the time periods of 1984-2000 and 2001-18. From 1984-2000, an annual average of 1.69 million acres were burned, but the annual average increased to 3.35 million acres from 2001-18. During the astounding 2020 fire season, a total of 8.8 million acres were burned. What is behind this increase in fires? Human-induced warming of the climate has led to conditions that create a more favorable environment for extreme fire behavior and a longer-lasting fire season. Increased warming of the planet has led to more blocking weather patterns that promote longer and more intense heat waves and droughts. As the atmosphere heats up, it expands and has a shortage of water vapor. As a result, the hardy native vegetation and grasses evaporate quickly and become biofuels. A spark from human carelessness or some other source ignites a fire, and this fire has the real estate and conditions to become explosive and spread quickly. Meteorologist Lamont Bain with the National Weather Service in Flagstaff, Arizona, describes the conditions that have led to much of the western United States facing a higher risk of fires: "One of the things we’ve seen over the last two years is that portions of the West have really been in a multidecadal drought. And so, as a result of that, areas that typically receive precipitation aren’t getting the precipitation — or at least their normal precipitation budget. They’re failing to reach that. And with the warmer conditions that we’re seeing and the drier conditions, we’re really starting to see a lot of the vegetation kind of remain in this dry state." The fire behavior is also more extreme and creates a dangerous setup for firefighters and residents living in the region. Bain states that fire embers are being lofted miles away from the parent fire which creates spot fires. These fires have a vast impact even here in the Midwest and Central Iowa. Smoke plumes travel thousands of miles reducing visibility and air quality, which creates health problems for those exposed. While the long-term climate data points to much of the western U.S. being at a higher risk for significant wildfires in the future, we are also not immune in central Iowa. We spoke with Ryan Schlater, a contact fire specialist, at the Iowa Department of Natural Resources to learn more about our risk. Schlater says Iowa has two fire seasons — one in the spring, the other in the fall. The fall season is typically worse. An erratic snowpack is often an issue around here, especially during the spring months. A lack of snow causes vegetation to dry out and be ready to ignite, especially on a windy day.So what’s ahead for the future, and what are some steps we can take to prepare and mitigate?Schlater encourages Iowans to do the following: "Clear around their homes of leaves and debris. Clean out your gutters because embers can catch in the gutters and then catch the roof on fire. And then we ask anything, like if you have a wooden deck, to make sure there's no leaves underneath the wooden deck, don't store your firewood next to your house, things like that. As far as in the field, we that farmers carry along a fire extinguisher on their pieces of equipment when they're out combining or working in the fields. We they blow out their combines of all the leftover corn residue chaff-type stuff and in vulnerable areas where it can get hot. , maintain your bearings, grease, your bearings, grease, your grease, your farm implements."Meteorologist Lamont Bain believes that there is a potential for increased insurance premiums along with the possibility of policies to help mitigate these extreme fires. Bain also states that even with mitigation techniques, the big driver of these large fires will highly depend on the future of our climate.

The long-term climate signal data points to much of the western United States being at a greater risk for major wildfires. The trend is not good — there has already been a substantial increase in the acreage of land burned over the last 40 years across the western United States. According to a study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the western United States has seen a 90% increase in the amount of mean acreage burned by wildfires between the time periods of 1984-2000 and 2001-18. From 1984-2000, an annual average of 1.69 million acres were burned, but the annual average increased to 3.35 million acres from 2001-18. During the astounding 2020 fire season, a total of 8.8 million acres were burned.

Hearst Owned

What is behind this increase in fires? Human-induced warming of the climate has led to conditions that create a more favorable environment for extreme fire behavior and a longer-lasting fire season. Increased warming of the planet has led to more blocking weather patterns that promote longer and more intense heat waves and droughts. As the atmosphere heats up, it expands and has a shortage of water vapor. As a result, the hardy native vegetation and grasses evaporate quickly and become biofuels. A spark from human carelessness or some other source ignites a fire, and this fire has the real estate and conditions to become explosive and spread quickly.

NOAA

Hearst Owned

Meteorologist Lamont Bain with the National Weather Service in Flagstaff, Arizona, describes the conditions that have led to much of the western United States facing a higher risk of fires: "One of the things we’ve seen over the last two years is that portions of the West have really been in a multidecadal drought. And so, as a result of that, areas that typically receive precipitation aren’t getting the precipitation — or at least their normal precipitation budget. They’re failing to reach that. And with the warmer conditions that we’re seeing and the drier conditions, we’re really starting to see a lot of the vegetation kind of remain in this dry state." The fire behavior is also more extreme and creates a dangerous setup for firefighters and residents living in the region. Bain states that fire embers are being lofted miles away from the parent fire which creates spot fires. These fires have a vast impact even here in the Midwest and Central Iowa. Smoke plumes travel thousands of miles reducing visibility and air quality, which creates health problems for those exposed.

Hearst Owned

While the long-term climate data points to much of the western U.S. being at a higher risk for significant wildfires in the future, we are also not immune in central Iowa. We spoke with Ryan Schlater, a contact fire specialist, at the Iowa Department of Natural Resources to learn more about our risk. Schlater says Iowa has two fire seasons — one in the spring, the other in the fall. The fall season is typically worse. An erratic snowpack is often an issue around here, especially during the spring months. A lack of snow causes vegetation to dry out and be ready to ignite, especially on a windy day.

So what’s ahead for the future, and what are some steps we can take to prepare and mitigate?

Schlater encourages Iowans to do the following: "Clear around their homes of leaves and debris. Clean out your gutters because embers can catch in the gutters and then catch the roof on fire. And then we ask anything, like if you have a wooden deck, to make sure there's no leaves underneath the wooden deck, don't store your firewood next to your house, things like that. As far as in the field, we [recommend] that farmers carry along a fire extinguisher on their pieces of equipment when they're out combining or working in the fields. We [recommend] they blow out their combines of all the leftover corn residue chaff-type stuff and in vulnerable areas where it can get hot. [Finally], maintain your bearings, grease, your bearings, grease, your grease, your farm implements."

Meteorologist Lamont Bain believes that there is a potential for increased insurance premiums along with the possibility of policies to help mitigate these extreme fires. Bain also states that even with mitigation techniques, the big driver of these large fires will highly depend on the future of our climate.

Forecasting Our Future: Future climate favors more wildfires

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